Strong returns do not automatically mean strong debt capacity.
Equity economics and lender repayment capacity answer different questions.
Separate investor returns from repayment
An attractive equity return does not by itself establish that the project can service debt when due. Timing, cash-flow volatility and debt terms matter.
Look at the repayment profile
Annual summaries can conceal periods of cash pressure. Construction funding, ramp-up, seasonality, reserve funding and refinancing assumptions need explicit treatment.
Test the assumptions
Use evidence-backed assumptions and transparent downside scenarios. A model is an analytical tool; it does not establish the reliability of the underlying contracts or technical inputs.
Document the judgement
Record the proposed structure, material risks, sensitivities and questions requiring specialist review before committing capital.
General guidance. Project-specific analysis and specialist advice are defined through an agreed engagement.